PROBABILITY AND TIMELINE FOR WORLD-WIDE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF INTEREST

FIG. 1. TYPICAL MAXIMUM POSSIBLE LIFESPAN OF ANY PURPORTED ECONOMY SUBJECT TO INTEREST. In the charted calculations, period ending debt (6) is determined by re-borrowing principal (1) and interest (2) paid out of the general circulation (4). As re-borrowed principal comprises new debt equal to the former debt it counted against, period ending debt (6) thus equals period beginning debt (5) plus periodic interest (2). In the chart, element 3 represents the sum of periodic interest and principal paid in servicing debt. Thus if at any time the costs of servicing debt (3) exceed the circulation (as every such chart of a monetary system subject to interest inherently depicts), it becomes impossible to service debt with the given circulation. A Maximum POSSIBLE Lifespan is reached therefore when the costs of servicing debt (principal and interest obligations, 3) exceed the circulation (4); and a General PRACTICAL Lifespan of the system, or real world systemic collapse, occurs therefore when the costs of sustaining commerce preclude servicing debt. CLICK HERE to visit our DOWNLOADS PAGE to download our free Apple Numbers/Excel Maximum Possible Lifespan Mockups, which generate these charts.

PRESIDENT JAMES MADISON

History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and its issuance. The nation which reposes on the pillow of political confidence will sooner or later end its political existence in deadly lethargy.

It is proper to take alarm at the first experiment on our liberties. We hold this prudent jealousy to be the first duty of citizens, and one of the noblest characteristics of the late Revolution. The free men of America did not wait until usurped power had strengthened itself by exercise and entangled the question in precedents. They saw all the consequences in the principle, and they avoided the consequences by denying the principle.

mike montagne

WHY SO MANY CANDIDATES EVADE MATHEMATICALLY PERFECTED ECONOMY™

As none of the present players will commit to the arguments which ostensibly justify usury, we must decipher why; and the answer to this question hinges on another:

If the purposes of evasion were legitimate, why not justify in absolute terms how we can even maintain a vital circulation without suffering perpetual multiplication of debt to ever greater detriment?

If the central banking system were not imposed, this question would have been answered in 1913.

It is because this obvious and crucial question cannot be answered that evasion is consistent instead with recognizing alternative arguments can only be defeated by the foundations of mathematically perfected economy™. This makes all evaders culpable for our oppression, for nothing less than mathematically perfected economy™ can serve us.

Until we settle for nothing less than full accountability then, we will have neither accountability, representation, or solution.

Samuel Adams

Speech at the Philadelphia State House, August 1, 1776

"If you love [the promise of dispossessed] wealth better than liberty, the tranquillity of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."

Thomas Jefferson

If the American people ever allow banks to issue their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation [by having to maintain a vital circulation by perpetually re-borrowing principal and interest as subsequent sums of debt, increased perpetually so much as periodic interest], the banks and [bank owned] corporations which will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property, until their children wake homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.

Monday, March 31, 2008

The familiar pattern, contorted by disruption, vacillating interest rates, data collection methods, vacillating maintenance of the circulation, and world events. Here we see the first two lifespans of the so-called Federal Reserve System: A first lifespan to collapse (1913 to 1930); and a second lifespan to subsequent collapse (1945/50 to present).

In the late 1950s and early 1960s, the protective paper covers we used to put on our school books projected that owing to further advances in industrial productivity, by 1980 people would have so much free time on their hands that one of the greatest "problems" we would face would be finding good things to do with it.

What happened?

Before we knew it, the costs of homes were "appreciating" 5 percent per year. No sooner were we "accustomed" to that pace and it was 10 percent; then 20....

As the costs of all things accelerated at ever faster rates than potential income, two "bread winners" were required to financially sustain a household — yet "inflation" was practically always said to be a rosy less-than 5%. Children were raised for the first time, not by their parents, but by teachers and day care centers, suddenly appearing everywhere. We took ever more medications for stress that never existed before. To an ever greater degree we chased "the dollar"; how, how effectively, and for what, mattered all the less. Catching it was the issue, the one ever more absorbing quest. Hundreds of thousands, then millions barely kept pace with the interest on their credit cards — something we neither used nor required before. Whole industries disappeared. Industry after industry. The fabric of our society unraveled. Instead of becoming easier, life became ever more impossible; and as we chased our tails in an ever faster circle, ever the less did the most of us understand what was going on around and underneath us.

PROBABILITY FOR WORLD-WIDE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF INTEREST

The familiar pattern, contorted by disruption, vacillating interest rates, data collection methods, vacillating maintenance of the circulation, and world events. Here we see the first two lifespans of the so-called Federal Reserve System: A first lifespan to collapse (1913 to 1930); and a second lifespan to subsequent collapse (1945/50 to present).

Any purported economy subject to interest ultimately terminates itself under insoluble debt, because to maintain a vital circulation, we must perpetually re-borrow periodic principal and interest payments as subsequent debts, increased so much as periodic interest. Re-borrowed principal equals and thus retains the former debt its payment would otherwise resolve. Thus the sum of debt increases so much as periodic interest, which is re-borrowed as new debt, above the retained sum of debt.

As ever more of the circulation is inherently devoted to servicing debt, ever less of the circulation can be devoted to sustaining commerce, and yet the costs of all things are perpetually driven upward. Surviving industry increase prices to sustain itself, while margins and the purchasing powers of consumers erode. Industry is driven from free countries to slave societies. In its wake and beyond its bow, representation across the world suffers. And the perpetrators, who come to own everything, must disinform us so ever more aggressively that so many of us, dispossessed to such a degree by so few of them, never or barely realize the stench of it all.

To outgrow this process is impossible, because it requires growth and consumption both, escalating at ever greater rates even exceeding the multiplication of debt itself. Yet just because the world is finite, such growth is impossible, even if the necessary rates of growth, and even the necessary rates of consumption were not.

We do this eventually without even asking what is the ostensibly justifying principle of requiring such growth?

Yet there can't be such a justifying principle, unless one man is to be endowed with a right or privilege which inherently not only subjugates all others, but inherently dispossesses them even to a terminal state, for if we give such a man the privilege to create money at no cost, and yet this is to impose such cost on the rest of us for delivering no real service whatever, then it is just for him to dispossess the rest of humanity for nothing.

Nonetheless, the probability for world-wide collapse as a consequence of interest therefore is 100 percent. Certain.

That is, irreversible multiplication of debt in proportion to a circulation by interest can only produce a terminal sum of debt which the subject commerce can no longer afford to service, because to do so would require more even than the whole circulation; thus to borrow even further enough to do so would comprise a debt beyond the capacity of commerce to service, even if no costs whatsoever were involved in sustaining commerce. In other words, at such a maximum possible lifespan and beyond, the necessary credit-worthiness is impossible.

ALTERNATIVES REGARDING WORLD-WIDE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF INTEREST

This however is not to say that the world will absolutely suffer a Second Great Depression, even as such an inevitable event looms just around the corner.

Nor does that mean the alternate events we should anticipate are equally or more comforting, because unless we assert the one and only solution, the whole thrust of the developing pattern indicates that left to the present forces of governments presently in fact obstructing representation, the developing infrastructures, which everywhere build upon usury, will ensure we are forever dispossessed to the greatest practical degree. Usury perpetuated by the further tools our unassented masters are devising will continue to be their tool to control us, to enslave us, to minimize our consumption, to disinform us, and to deny us representation forever.

So the forks into the road of the future are,

1. We can stay the course and suffer the collapse of a Second Great Depression:

   In this, the evident present case, the world's hidden credit masters most assuredly will, as they did ten years after the First Great Depression, at some time simply re-allow us some of the credit-worthiness which their method of dispossession yet will inherently and perpetually destroy.

   To maximize their takings forever, we will be subject to perpetual deceptions to limp along forever. Under that perpetual erosion, we in the United States might eventually then begin the third successive lifespan of the so-called Federal Reserve System or whatever facade of rectification emerges. The rest of the world likewise will be persuaded that it take a similar tack. We will be given false reasons for the failure; and these false reasons, accepted sufficiently by most of the duped public, will be used to consolidate the powers of the hidden credit masters above us, to perpetuate world-wide usury to whatever eternity they determine.

2. We can allow the purported forces of "globalization" to pretend solution and pursue the same course:

   The purported forces "of globalization," which everywhere are arising not by public mandate, but by covert efforts which are not even exposed to the judgment of public assent, without exception intend to reinforce the persistence of usury. Rather than reinforcing vital instruments such as our Constitution and Bill of Rights, the opposed intention here is the permanent dissolution of such protections, for if these instruments were enforced today by these very players who presently deny their value to us, they who pretend to serve us would already have dissolved the world's central banks. "Globalization" will be wielded as a false alternative, enveiling the object of permanent usury which will be pursued just the same as if we tolerate further pursuit of the first alternative.

3. We can establish mathematically perfected economy™:

   This course and this course alone will solve our problems, avert erosion and collapse ever afterward, make us financially capable of solving problems we may never afford to solve otherwise, and immediately enable us to achieve the full measure of prosperity we are capable of.

TIMELINE FOR WORLD-WIDE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF INTEREST

The familiar pattern, contorted by disruption, vacillating interest rates, data collection methods, vacillating maintenance of the circulation, and world events. Here we see the first two lifespans of the so-called Federal Reserve System: A first lifespan to collapse (1913 to 1930); and a second lifespan to subsequent collapse (1945/50 to present).

As easily, accurately, and reliably as we can calculate the interest a person must pay on a debt next month, we can project the maximum possible lifespan of any purported economy subject to interest.

The underlying approach is a far cry from usual numeric methods which may or may not discover far downstream that the raft is going to crash into a rock, because inherently, usual numeric methods are applied not to understood fundamentals of a process, but to observed results of a process or processes which may not be understood at all (or they would be calculated explicitly instead, as our process will).

An example of a usual "numeric method" for instance would be ballistics, where based on a factor multiplied against a model of known deceleration, we approximate the similar deceleration of a different projectile without ever actually determining how all the involved aerodynamic or drag inducing processes interact.

Ballistics happens to be a case of relatively accurate application of a numeric method. But as any responsible mathematician or responsible audience realizes and is mindful of the place and usefulness of an approach, the accuracy of numeric methods depends on the pertinence of the model and mathematic accuracy of the method. So, there may or may not be unknown factors in any given numeric method, whereas explicit methods are of generally exceeding accuracy.

This being explained beforehand in answer to "Austrian Economists" who hold without qualification that nothing involving humans can be calculated, we can demonstrate that our explicit method in fact is calculated with exceeding accuracy in that it is analogous to the obligatory conditions of a simple word problem:

1. Johnny must take a step directly forward each day;

   [He must periodically maintain a circulation, so that he can continue to service a sum of debt which is subject to interest.]

2. His first step will be 3 feet; and every further step will be 1.5 times the distance of the preceding step;

   [Each step must be definitively farther, because a factor such as interest multiplies each day's necessary step, each step or day.]

3. There is a cliff 10 feet directly in front of Johnny;

   [When the costs of servicing his debt exceed the circulation, he can no longer service his perpetually multiplying debt, because there isn't sufficient circulation to do so, and because he will no longer be credit-worthy to increase his debt above the debt he no longer can afford to service.]

4. How many days then, until Johnny steps off the cliff?

In answering this simple riddle, we determine with certainty that Johnny will step well off the cliff in his third day:

His first step takes him 3 feet; his second another 4.5 feet, or 7.5 feet altogether; and his third step takes him another 6.75 feet, or 14.25 feet altogether — a full 4.25 feet beyond the edge of the cliff.

Of course, in regard to the "Austrian Economist's" regular assertion that "mathematics cannot account for human behavior" (as if all "human behavior" is inherently indeterminable), we are not accounting for indeterminate human behavior, because (as our problem stipulates) little Johnny *must* take a defined step forward each day, as in the case of servicing debt and typical pattern of maintaining a circulation with which to do so.

Thus we can readily write a computer process to service debt and maintain any conceivable circulation, accounting furthermore for processes such as bankruptcy acting [negligibly in any desirable, healthy system] to diminish debt, until the costs of servicing debt exceed the circulation. Along with the technical analysis I provided the Reagan Administration in the early 1980s, I offered to produce such models as thus were capable of accurately calculating the maximum possible lifespan of any purported economy subject to interest.

Quite contrary to his own unqualified assertions, not only did those models and related analyses accurately project that Reagan would triple the national debt in two terms, they accurately projected our overall accumulation of debt to now.

We ran a great breadth of numbers (interest, circulation growth, bankruptcy, etc.) through those models in the early 1980s. Given the double-digit interest and price inflation we suffered as Reagan took office, I was mildly surprised how far into the future it was possible to extend the lifespan by aggressive de-escalation of interest rates.

To interpret the projections of the models nonetheless, it is necessary to understand two related terms:

1. maximum possible lifespan :

   The maximum "possible" lifespan is actually theoretically impossible to reach, because we define it as a moment where the costs of servicing debt equal or exceed the circulation. That is, it is "possible" to reach if and only if there are no costs to sustaining commerce whatever.

   This seeming irregularity does not make the calculation impertinent; it means the lifespan cannot exceed such a term; everything beyond it is theoretically impossible because it breaks all the rules for credit-worthiness and further sustainability.

   The relevance of the maximum possible lifespan is that it can be calculated with exceeding accuracy for the prescribed circulation and rates of interest. Its ultimate importance is that it sets the end point, and that a thing we can less accurately determine, the general practical lifespan, is roughly determined as falling somewhere short of the maximum possible lifespan.

2. general practical lifespan :

   Necessarily, we define a general "practical" lifespan to be a general moment where the overall costs of servicing debt infringe on the overall possibility of sustaining commerce. In other words, if there is $100 in circulation and the overall periodic costs of sustaining commerce are $10, then the general practical lifespan of the system is reached when the periodic costs of servicing the overall debt reach $90. After this point, it is generally impractical to sustain commerce, as the costs of servicing debt continue to increase.

   Thus the general practical lifespan marks the general beginning point of the final breakdown of the system.

   Of course then, because the costs of sustaining various commerce and the debts thereof differ, some commerce begins to fail ahead of the general practical failure point indicated by the general practical lifespan; and thus it is even probable that sectors will topple ahead of the general practical lifespan, with this potentially triggering the whole collapse as the fall of over-marginalized sectors takes down less marginalized sectors and escalating deflation seals the end, even for areas which might have been sound prior to mass deflation.

   The point of the general practical lifespan can less accurately be determined, only because no real data is kept from which to determine it. Thus the overall process is to determine the maximum possible lifespan, and to more roughly deduce how far before the maximum possible lifespan the general practical lifespan will fall. Actual collapse then will manifest at or about the approximate general practical lifespan.

When I originally ran the numbers, today seemed like a long way down the road. Interest was well into double digits, but with aggressively de-escalated (reduced) interest rates nonetheless it would have been possible in 1980 to 1983-4 to extend the maximum possible lifespan even to 2040 AD, although effectively, this would have meant skidding along the edge of catastrophic failure for decades. Rates sustained far above the necessary marks make that lifespan impossible now, because of the accelerated multiplication of debt engendered by higher interest.

The pattern of interest policy we decided to expect of policy makers itself turns out to have maintained substantially lower rates than have been deployed, and so today our projection has to be adjusted for that. Conservatively, we can expect the deployed rates to have shortened our projected maximum possible lifespan of approximately 2020 AD by some 5 years, making the adjusted maximum "possible" lifespan approximately 2015.

Accounting for a general practical lifespan falling some 5 years shy of that then would make the general practical lifespan approximately 2010 AD.

At the same time, good arguments can be made that artificial provisions have falsely extended the lifespan, while we may already be in that place where little Johnny's last step has just not quite come down. Clinton's 90s were a false boom possibly even intended only to artificially extend the lifespan, as Mr. Clinton was provided the same information as Mr. Reagan. Similarly, during the present Bush Administration, wholesale refinancing of equity, reverse mortgages and so forth signal the last dying efforts to borrow time against a clock beating down to its last ticks.

All the while, debt continues to multiply in proportion to the circulation, or the commerce which can be sustained by it; and there is but one and one only solution. Humpty Dumpty will fall, despite whatever shenanigans try to keep him on the wall. But the egg itself is already so rotten, that to re-use it in lieu of a new carton laying by would certainly comprise one of those greatest possible insults to the ostensible intelligence, integrity, and even promise of humanity.

"To find the players in all the corruption of the world, 'Follow the money.' To find the captains of world corruption, follow the money all the way."

mike montagne — founder, PEOPLE For Mathematically Perfected Economy™, author/engineer of mathematically perfected economy™ (1979)

 del.icio.us  FaceBook  NewsVine  reddit